2024 Farm Commodity Program Payment Estimates for Ohio Counties as of June 2025

By: Carl Zulauf, Seungki Lee, and David Marrison, Ohio State University, June 2025

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Estimates of payments by ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage – County version) for the 2024 crop year use county yield estimates from USDA, RMA (US Department of Agriculture, Risk Management Agency) (https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/RIRS/SCOYieldsRevenuesPaymentIndicators.aspx).  Legislation requires FSA (Farm Service Agency) to give primacy to RMA yields when determining ARC-CO payment, but other factors can be considered.  Thus, these ARC-CO payment estimates are likely to be closer to the FSA payment rate than the payment estimates made in May 2025 using county yield estimates from USDA, NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/).  Other data used to makes these payment estimates are 2024 crop year program parameters and market year price estimates from USDA, FSA (https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/arc-plc/program-data).

FSA is expected to release official payment rates in October 2025.  They can differ notably from estimates.  Market year prices and county yields are not final.  They are also currently in a range where small changes can cause large changes in ARC-CO payment rates.  Use the estimates with caution.

June 2025 Estimates of 2024 Crop Year Payments:

1. ARC-CO:  Ohio corn and soybean payments are expected for some counties.  As a revenue program, ARC-CO payment calculations include yield.  2024 Ohio weather was highly variable.  Yields and thus county payment rates will be variable.  Payment estimates per base acre vary from $0 (50 counties) to $81 (Ross and Highland) for corn base and from $0 (17 counties) to $60 (Mercer) for soybean base (see appended maps).  These estimates include the 85% payment factor (i.e. 15% payment reduction factor).  Also appended are maps of county gross revenue (estimated price times estimated yield) plus estimated ARC-CO pay rate per acre.  They illustrate that ARC-CO payments are countercyclical to low market revenue (correlation between total revenue and ARC-CO pay rate is negative).  Higher revenue/yields are thus almost always preferred to an ARC-CO payment.  Note, some counties have irrigated and non-irrigated base acres.  Payment estimates are only for non-irrigated base since dryland production is far more common in Ohio. 
2. PLC:  At present, no PLC payment is expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  Projected US market year price is not below the effective reference price:  corn ($4.35 vs. $4.01), soybeans ($9.95 vs. $9.26), and wheat ($5.50 vs. $5.50).

Commodity Program Policy Objective:

1. ARC-CO provides assistance if a crop’s county market revenue is below 86% of a crop’s county benchmark market revenue for 5 recent crop years.
2. PLC provides assistance if a crop’s US market year price is below 100% of the crop’s US effective reference price set by Congress. 
3. ARC-IC provides assistance if an ARC-IC farm’s average per acre revenue from all program crops is below 86% of the ARC-IC farm’s per acre benchmark revenue.

Payment Formulas (* = times):

ARC-CO payment rate per base acre = MAX [$0, or 86% times (county benchmark revenue - observed revenue)] * 85% payment factor.  County benchmark revenue = (5-year Olympic average (high and low value removed) of recent US market year prices * 5-year Olympic average of recent trend-adjusted county yields).  Observed revenue = observed US crop year price * observed county yield.  ARC-CO payment rate is capped at 10% of county benchmark revenue.

PLC payment rate per base acre = MAX [$0, or (US effective reference price – US market year price) * a farm’s PLC base yield * 85% payment factor.

Note: Counties labeled as $0 but colored in red are estimated to have non-zero payments of less than $1. Counties colored in white are estimated to receive no payment. Counties in gray are not processed due to missing FSA yield data.

Note: Counties labeled as $0 but colored in red are estimated to have non-zero payments of less than $1. Counties colored in white are estimated to receive no payment. Counties in gray are not processed due to missing FSA yield data.