Ohio Crop Returns Outlook for 2025

Ohio Crop Returns Outlook for 2025 - Final Crop Enterprise Budgets for 2025

Barry Ward, Leader, Production Business Management

Lower crop prices and a mix of higher and lower input costs have set the stage for another challenging profit outlook for Ohio commodity crops in 2025. Supply and demand fundamentals have both continued to negatively affect commodity crop prices. Some input costs are projected to be higher while some are expected to be steady to lower. The result of this set of economic fundamentals is an outlook for low to negative margins for the 2025 corn, soybean and wheat crops.

Production costs for Ohio field crops are forecast to be steady to slightly higher than last year with higher machinery and equipment costs leading the way. Lower crop protection chemical prices are offset by an expected increase in product need. Fuel and crop insurance costs are also projected to be slightly lower but land rents continue to increase on average.

 Variable costs for corn in Ohio for 2025 are projected to range from $502 to $614 per acre depending on land productivity. The trend line corn yield (190.1 bpa) scenario included in the corn enterprise budget shows an increase in variable costs of 2.4% with an increase in fixed costs of 3.4% due to higher rents and machinery/equipment costs.

Variable costs for 2025 Ohio soybeans are projected to range from $264 to $298 per acre. Variable costs for trend-line soybeans (56.8 bpa) are expected to decrease 2% in 2025 compared to 2024 while fixed costs are expected to increase 2.9% in 2025.

Wheat variable expenses for 2025 are projected to range from $231 to $288 per acre. The trend line wheat yield (81.5 bpa) scenario included in the wheat enterprise budget shows a decrease in variable costs of 2.3% with an increase in fixed costs of 2.7%.

Returns will be mixed depending on crop price change throughout the rest of the year. Grain prices used as assumptions in the 2025 crop enterprise budgets are $4.20/bushel for corn, $10.20/bushel for soybeans and $6.00/bushel for wheat (wheat price set in October using the September ’25 Futures price at that time).

Projected returns above variable costs (contribution margin) range from $137 to $344 per acre for corn and $200 to $398 per acre for soybeans. Projected returns above variable costs for wheat range from $160 to $299 per acre although significant crop price decreases since last fall (when the price was set for this enterprise budget) will likely cause wheat to be less profitable than these return projections indicate.

Return to Land is a measure calculated to assist in land rental and purchase decision making. The measure is calculated by starting with total receipts or revenue from the crop and subtracting all expenses except the land expense. Returns to Land for Ohio corn (Total receipts minus total costs except land cost) are projected to range from -$73 to $118 per acre in 2025 depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for Ohio soybeans are expected to range from $51 to $237 per acre depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for wheat (not including straw or double-crop returns) are projected to range from $42 per acre to $171 per acre assuming a planting-time price of $6/bushel. If a current forward harvest price for wheat of $5.25/bushel is used, the Return to Land is in a lower range of -$5 to $101 per acre depending on land production capabilities.

Total costs projected for trend line corn production in Ohio are estimated to be $1021 per acre. This includes all variable costs as well as fixed costs (or overhead if you prefer) including machinery, labor, management and land costs. Fixed machinery costs of $109 per acre include depreciation, interest, insurance and housing. A land charge of $241 per acre is based on data from the Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey Summary. Labor and management costs combined are calculated at $84 per acre. Details of budget assumptions and numbers can be found in footnotes included in each budget.

Total costs projected for trend line soybean production in Ohio are estimated to be $677 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs: $88 per acre, land charge: $241 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $50 per acre.)

Total costs projected for trend line wheat production in Ohio are estimated to be $620 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs: $58 per acre, land charge: $241 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $51 per acre.)

Data used to compile these enterprise budgets includes research, surveys, market data, economic modeling, calculations and experience of authors.

Current budget analyses indicates less favorable returns for all three primary commodity crops in Ohio for 2025 but crop price change and harvest yields may alter this outcome. These projections are based on OSU Extension Ohio Crop Enterprise Budgets. Newly updated Enterprise Budgets for 2025 have been completed and posted to the Farm Office website: https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management/enterprise-budgets